During Donald Trump's first presidency, he had a lenient approach towards Russia and a desire for closer cooperation with Vladimir Putin. This tendency appears to continue after his re-election as President. It is predicted that Trump's softening of political and diplomatic relations with Putin could pave the way for agreements on several issues, including the cessation of the war in Ukraine.
Mutual release of prisoners
This rapprochement in relations can be justified by several facts. For example, Russia has released Marc Fogel, a former employee of the U.S. Embassy who had been imprisoned for more than three years, and following this, the U.S. took a similar step by releasing Russian citizen Alexander Vinnik, who had been accused of involvement in money laundering.
In addition, the U.S. President's Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, visited Russia on February 11.
Trump-Putin phone call
Finally, on February 12, a phone call took place between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
In the statement released by the Kremlin regarding the call, it was noted that the two leaders agreed on arranging personal meetings.
The Russian President invited the U.S. President to visit Moscow and expressed readiness to host American officials in Russia to discuss areas of mutual interest, including the settlement of the Ukraine conflict.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also stated that Trump’s conversation with Putin would lead to ensuring peace on the continent.
Contacts could bring a turning point in the Ukraine war
The Vice President of the University of Maine of the United States, political scientist Lizzi Wahab, stated in an interview with APA that the mutual release of prisoners is a sign of a potential diplomatic rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia: "Contacts between the two countries' leaders could lead to an easing of tensions between the two powers."
The American expert also viewed these contacts as a hope that a turning point could be reached in the Ukrainian war: "For the war to end, it is important to conduct sustained and concrete diplomatic processes to restore trust and build mutual confidence. From a broader perspective, the easing of relations between Russia and the U.S. will not be limited to the mutual release of prisoners but will also create a platform for broader cooperation on global strategic and security issues."
It's better to talk
The director of Russia’s Institute of Contemporary State Development, political technologist Dmitry Solonnikov, in a statement to APA, assessed the visit of Trump's representative to Russia, followed by the phone conversation between Putin and Trump, as a significant shift in the global balance.
"The previous U.S. administration did not engage in any negotiations with Vladimir Putin. The U.S. did not acknowledge the existence of the Russian government, and the Russian government, in turn, did not acknowledge the existence of the U.S. government—or if it did, it was only in a negative context… But now, communication has been established 100%. There has been a phone call, and most likely, face-to-face meetings between the heads of state will follow. In any case, this is a positive development. Instead of ignoring each other, it is better to talk," he said.
Problems are not solved in talks, but this is a change in the situation
Recalling that the phone conversation included discussions on prisoner exchanges, the Ukraine issue, and the situation in the Middle East, the Russian political analyst emphasized that the agenda was broad: "At present, no specific problems are being resolved in the negotiations. For now, it is also impossible to see how these problems will be solved. But there are efforts, and that is a good thing. This already represents a change in the situation. However, this does not mean that we will see a final outcome in the near future. There is a positive willingness to move forward with results, but there is no guarantee of whether progress will be made. So far, the only agreement is to form a negotiation group and to begin work. The negotiation group is expected in Moscow. It is a very serious group. Once again, Trump's special representatives will continue to come to Moscow. This is very good. But it is impossible to say when agreements and results will be achieved."
Russia-Ukraine war
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in 2014, escalated into a full-scale war in 2022. In February 2022, Russia launched large-scale military operations, attacking most parts of Ukraine. The war led to intense battles between Russia and Ukraine, numerous casualties, humanitarian crises, and heightened international political tensions. Western countries, particularly the U.S. and the European Union, provided military and financial support to Ukraine while imposing extensive sanctions on Russia. The war’s consequences have not only affected Ukraine but have also significantly impacted global energy markets, food supply chains, and international relations. The primary expectation of all humanity from Trump, as well as from his interactions with Putin, is the end of the war in Ukraine.
It is too early to say that the Putin-Trump talks will result in peace in Ukraine
According to Solonnikov, no breakthrough agreement was reached during the talks: “During the phone conversation, Vladimir Putin once again emphasized that the root causes of this conflict must be eliminated. This indicates that the Russian side has not abandoned the idea of Ukraine’s demilitarization.”
The political analyst also stated that it is premature to assume that the Putin-Trump talks will lead to a peace agreement on Russia’s terms: “This is not possible yet. Perhaps the negotiation process will move in this direction. But once again, I emphasize, it is too early to talk about this.”
Lamiya Shirinova
Farid Akbarov
