Trump-Putin phone talk: What to expect in the course of the Russia-Ukraine war?
The recent phone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has yielded a limited but noteworthy outcome concerning the ongoing Ukraine crisis. The primary result of this dialogue is Russia's agreement to a 30-day cessation of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. However, this agreement stops short of a comprehensive ceasefire, as broader cessation of hostilities was conditioned upon the cessation of Western military aid to Kyiv—a stipulation unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine and its allies.
President Trump characterized the conversation as productive, emphasizing a mutual desire to end the conflict and indicating ongoing efforts toward a comprehensive peace. Despite this, recent Russian airstrikes targeting Ukraine have raised concerns about Russia's commitment to the agreement, leading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to express skepticism and await further details from the U.S. administration.
Analysts suggest that achieving a lasting peace will be a complex and prolonged process, requiring significant diplomatic maneuvers from all sides. The limited nature of the current truce underscores the challenges ahead in negotiating a comprehensive settlement to the conflict.
Does the Kremlin try to buy time?
Military and political columnist of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko in an interview with APA characterizing the phone talk between Trump and Putin said Russia's unrealistic demands and high-stakes approach, the Kremlin appears to be stalling negotiations to buy time, accumulate resources, and ultimately disrupt the process, leading to a breakdown and the resumption of active military actions.
“After this conversation, there will be a conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky to coordinate the above-mentioned points discussed between the US President and Putin. But I will say this, the reaction, in principle, is quite expected, everything was said by the Russian side, since the Russian side is trying to talk to Ukraine with an ultimatum and set certain conditions that are simply impossible to fulfill, or even expected. Russia is raising the stakes as high as possible. And raising these stakes so high that it seems that the main task, the main goal of the Kremlin is now to drag out time, and subsequently, through the simply unrealistic demands, to disrupt the negotiation process itself. That is, we can now observe such an imitation of the negotiation process, which the Kremlin will try to use in its own interests to delay the process itself, the opportunity to use it for its own purposes, the accumulation of ammunition, the accumulation of resources, the formation of resources. But the result will be unchanged. This is a breakdown of negotiations. The resumption of all active military actions regarding strikes and other agreements which, if they are reached, will again be disrupted.”
Igor Korotchenko, Chairman of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, military expert, in an interview with APA, positively assessed the telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, as well as the discussion of practical mechanisms for a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
The expert called Putin's agreement to freeze attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days a demonstration of the Kremlin's readiness for a practical peaceful settlement: "Vladimir Putin's agreement to freeze attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days is, of course, a goodwill step by Moscow. This is an intention to fulfill Trump's expressed wishes to the maximum extent. At the same time, although Russia has pledged not to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days, the fighting continues with the same intensity and fervor. Today, Russia manages to conduct offensive operations along the entire combat contact line, liberate new territories and control new settlements. In this regard, I would like to emphasize once again that the conditions that Putin indicated as the basis in his conversation with Trump must be fulfilled before the military operations are completely stopped."
Russia has agreed to a 30-day cessation of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, temporarily halting strikes on critical facilities that have been targeted during the ongoing conflict.
Ukrainian military expert while commenting on President Putin's main goal in this limited ceasefire said that today, Putin's main goal is to imitate and drag out the negotiation process.
“Precisely imitate. And of course, attempts to promote these hypertrophied conditions, maximally inflated conditions in an attempt, again, that some of them, and will it be possible to let them through, and will it be possible to hold them, and will it be possible to agree on them. That is, precisely imitate with such attempts”.
Putin’s demand
During the phone talk, Vladimir Putin demanded the cessation of Western military aid to Kyiv, insisting that continued support from the West prolongs the conflict and escalates tensions while framing it as a necessary condition for de-escalation and potential negotiations.
Should the West suspend military aid to Ukraine?
Kovalenko assessed Putin's demand as absolutely unrealistic: “Since Western military aid to Ukraine has been, is being, and will be supplied. Even if it is not the United States, it will be Europe. The United States can again block military aid, stop supplying military aid to Ukraine, but Ukraine will simply not refuse it. Therefore, this is an absolutely unrealistic demand. Moreover, this demand contradicts Putin himself, since some time ago he claimed that Western military aid did not help the Ukrainian army in the war at all. And as he put it, the SVO will achieve all its goals, despite the supply of Western weapons. That is, on the one hand, Western weapons do not pose a threat to the Russian army in Ukraine. Then why is this demand so loudly heard from Putin? But, frankly speaking, it is not clear. But, again, Ukraine will not refuse the supply of Western weapons”.
Mr Kovalenko noted that Western aid will not be completely stopped for one simple reason and The European countries have been supplying and will continue to supply.
“Not only European countries but also Türkiye, Pakistan tacitly, at the same time India show military aid to Ukraine. This is a very interesting case since India and Pakistan are historical antagonists, but in the issues of Ukraine, they actually supported us. That is, now in principle, we can already talk about this quite openly, that through a third of the countries, a kind of re-export of certain calibers of ammunition was carried out and on the battlefield, one could see 152-caliber ammunition, Pakistani and Indian-made shots lying next to each other, side by side, with the Ukrainian artillery crew. That is, even if there is a reduction, the reduction can be carried out at the expense of a country like the United States, which will again return to the issue of blocking supplies to Ukraine. But this is a reduction, but not a complete cessation.”
Igor Korotchenko, on the other hand, noted the need to stop the supply of any type of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from the Western coalition countries: "The West must stop supporting Ukraine, this support prolongs the conflict. At the same time, Putin stated that Ukraine must stop the forced mobilization of men into the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Because in Ukraine, men aged 18-65 are being caught on the streets and sent to the front."
Commenting on the military-political situation between the West and Russia, Korotchenko said that the confrontation between Russia and the collective Western countries continues.
"The main source of the continuation of such a negative policy is, first of all, the leadership of the European Union, which is completely aggressive towards the Russian Federation. They still plan to use Ukraine to defeat Russia. Today, it is clear to everyone that this is no longer possible. Let us recall what Bruno Kahl, the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), says, "Let Ukraine deal with Russia for another 5 years, let Ukraine fight Russia, it is good for Europe that we have the opportunity to weaken the Russian Federation while we are rearming for a big war." This is a very characteristic statement and shows the essence of Western policy," the Russian expert said.
Ukraine and the West are acting cautiously
Ukraine and its allies are closely monitoring the situation and are not prepared to accept demands to suspend military aid. Western countries are skeptical of Russia's peace intentions and believe that the Kremlin is only trying to buy time. Therefore, a complete resolution of the conflict in the near future does not seem realistic. Analysts say that although the negotiation process continues, fundamental differences between Russia and Ukraine still remain.
The same differences remain between the United States and European countries. This suggests that the hopes that arose in the early days of Trump's election that the Russia-Ukraine war would quickly stop and that significant progress would be made towards resolving the conflict have not been justified. It seems that the war will continue.
